SG
Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 revenue was $369.0M, essentially in line with consensus*, while Adjusted EPS was $0.46 vs $0.47*; GAAP EPS was a loss of $0.12 driven by a $60.9M non-cash impairment of Atkins intangibles .
- Mix was led by Quest and OWYN with retail takeaway up ~11% and ~14% respectively, while Atkins declined ~12%; gross margin fell 450 bps to 34.3% on elevated cocoa costs and tariffs .
- FY26 outlook initiated: net sales -2% to +2%, gross margin down 100–150 bps, Adjusted EBITDA -4% to +1%, with margins expected to trough in 1H and expand in Q3–Q4 on pricing, productivity, and lower cocoa costs .
- Capital deployment remains active: repaid $150M of debt in FY25 (total $240M repaid since OWYN deal), and increased buyback authorization by $150M; $171M remains available .
Values with * are from S&P Global.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Quest continued double-digit consumption growth (+11% in Q4; +12% FY) and expanded household penetration to ~19%; salty snacks consumption up 31% in Q4 and 34% FY .
- OWYN delivered +14% Q4 and +34% FY consumption growth, with aided awareness at ~20% and significant ACV headroom; management committed to stepped-up marketing and distribution .
- Strong cash generation and deleveraging: operating cash flow $178.5M and net debt/Adj EBITDA ~0.5x; buyback authorization raised by $150M, with $171M remaining .
- Quote: “Quest… is our largest and highest margin brand and the innovation leader in the category” .
- Quote: “We will lead this shift… by accelerating innovation, expanding physical availability… and breakthrough marketing” .
What Went Wrong
- Gross margin compression (34.3%, -450 bps YoY) on elevated cocoa and tariffs; adjusted EBITDA down 14.5% YoY to $66.2M .
- Atkins distribution losses (especially Club and Mass) and tail SKU rationalization drove declines; management expects ~20% consumption decline in FY26 for Atkins .
- OWYN velocity slowed due to a pea protein-related quality issue affecting taste/texture on certain lots; resolved but requires incremental trade and brand investment to re-accelerate .
- Non-cash impairment: $60.9M charge on Atkins brand/intangibles due to updated revenue projections; drove GAAP net loss of $12.4M .
- Near-term phasing: Q1 FY26 gross margin expected ~32.5% and Q1 adjusted EBITDA down ~25% YoY before improving in 2H .
Financial Results
Values with * are from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our vision is to be the scaled leader in high protein, low sugar and low carb food and beverage products…” .
- “As we enter fiscal 2026… reduced distribution for Atkins and cost pressures from inflation and tariffs” balanced by productivity, pricing, and brand investments .
- “We are covered on cocoa… Q3 and Q4 at rates well below prior year… presenting further potential favorability” .
- “Quest… our largest and highest margin brand… Bake Shop line extension, high protein donut, expected to hit shelves during Q1 of fiscal 2026” .
- “OWYN’s mission is to forge a new standard of clean… aided awareness is low at 20%… must invest more to drive awareness and build household penetration” .
Q&A Highlights
- OWYN quality issue and recovery: Issue tied to pea protein sourcing pre-acquisition; product was safe, taste/texture impacted some lots; new stable formulation shipping since August; increased trade/marketing to restore velocities .
- FY26 brand phasing: Quest high-single-digit growth and OWYN double-digit growth; Atkins consumption expected down ~20%; initial price elasticity heavier in 1H .
- Club channel strategy: Q2 FY26 laps heavy merchandising; expect more consistent, spread-out club distribution rather than concentrated events .
- Cocoa coverage detail: Cocoa mid-single-digit % of COGS; high-priced coverage in 1H; deflationary YoY in Q3/Q4; spot prices have fallen materially .
- Capital allocation: ~$180M operating cash in FY25; comfortable leverage; ability to fund capex, buybacks, and M&A concurrently .
Estimates Context
- Q4: Revenue slight beat vs consensus ($369.041M actual vs $368.583M*), Adjusted EPS slight miss ($0.46 vs $0.474*) .
- Q3: In line revenue ($380.956M vs $380.945M*); Adjusted EPS slightly above ($0.51 vs $0.501*) .
- Q2: Beat on both revenue ($359.655M vs $354.401M*) and Adjusted EPS ($0.46 vs $0.401*) .
- FY25: Adjusted EPS modestly below consensus ($1.92 vs $1.948*), with revenue in line ($1,450.920M vs $1,450.129M*) .
- Implication: Near-term estimate revisions likely to reflect guided GM trough in Q1, elasticity impact in 1H, and margin expansion in 2H; monitor OWYN re-acceleration trajectory and Atkins distribution normalization .
Values with * are from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q4 was operationally solid ex-costs, but margins compressed on cocoa/tariffs; Adjusted EPS of $0.46, GAAP loss from $60.9M impairment on Atkins .
- FY26 is a “two halves” year: expect trough margins/Q1 GM ~32.5% and Q1 adj EBITDA down ~25% YoY; margins expand in Q3–Q4 on pricing, productivity, and lower cocoa .
- Growth engines intact: Quest and OWYN driving double-digit consumption; broadened platforms (salty, RTD, Bake Shop donuts) and stepped-up marketing support .
- Atkins is being right-sized; near-term pain (~20% consumption decline FY26) but healthier core SKU focus should stabilize profitability longer term .
- Balance sheet flexibility: net debt/Adj EBITDA ~0.5x, strong cash conversion, $171M buyback capacity; optionality for capacity investments and M&A .
- Near-term trading setup: consider 1H headwinds (elasticity, tariffs, cocoa) versus likely 2H re-rating on margin expansion; watch OWYN velocity recovery and club/channel distribution cadence .
- Consensus likely modestly trims near-term EPS but could raise 2H/FY27 as margin drivers materialize* .
Values with * are from S&P Global.
Appendix: Additional Data
Notes: All figures are company-reported. Non-GAAP metrics (Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Diluted EPS, Net Debt/Adj EBITDA) follow company definitions with provided reconciliations . Values retrieved from S&P Global marked with * and presented without citations.